Forecasting & Prediction
Yu M, Montroy J, Fergusson D, Lalu MM, Kimmelman J. Matured Forecast Analyses for” Systematic and narrative review lead experts to different cancer trial predictions”.Journal of clinical epidemiology. 2023 May 19:S0895-4356.
Kimmelman J, Mandel DR, Benjamin DM. Predicting Clinical Trial Results: A Synthesis of Five Empirical Studies and Their Implications. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine.2023;66(1):107-28.
Kane PB, Moyer H, MacPherson A, Papenburg J, Ward BJ, Broomell SB, Kimmelman J. Relationship between lay and expert perceptions of COVID-19 vaccine development timelines in Canada and USA. PloS one. 2022 Feb 15.
Benjamin DM, Hey SP, MacPherson A, Hachem Y, Smith KS, Zhang SX, Wong S, Dolter S, Mandel DR, Kimmelman J. Principal investigators over-optimistically forecast scientific and operational outcomes for clinical trials. PLoS ONE. 2022.
Yu M, Montroy J, Fergusson D, Lalu M, Kimmelman J. Systematic and narrative review lead experts to different cancer trial predictions: a randomized trial. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. 2020.
Kane PB, Benjamin DM, Barker RA, Lang AE, Sherer T, Kimmelman J. Comparison of Patient and Expert Perceptions of the Attainment of Research Milestones in Parkinson’s Disease. Movement Disorders. 2020.
Kane PB, Moyer H, MacPherson A, Papenburg J, Ward B, Broomell S, Kimmelman J. Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines. Journal of General Internal Medicine. 2020.
Atanasov P, Diamantaras A, MacPherson A, Vinarov E, Benjamin DM, Shrier I, Paul F, Dirnagl U, Kimmelman J. Wisdom of the expert crowd prediction of response for 3 neurology randomized trials. Neurology, 2020.
Kane PB, Benjamin DM, Barker RA, Lang AE, Sherer T, & Kimmelman J. Forecasts for the Attainment of Major Research Milestones in Parkinson’s Disease. Journal of Parkinson’s Disease, 2020.
Benjamin D, Mandel DR, Kimmelman J. Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce? PLOS Biology, 2017.
Benjamin D and Kimmelman J. The Research Optimist’s Defense, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 2016.
Hey S and Kimmelman J. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately? Bioethics, 2016.
Clinical Development Process
Kane PB, Bittlinger M, Kimmelman J. Individualized therapy trials: navigating patient care, research goals and ethics. Nature Medicine. Oct 12, 2021.
Hutchinson N, Carlisle B, Doussau A, Bosan R, Gumnit E, MacPherson A, Fergusson DA, Kimmelman J. Patient Participation in Clinical Trials of Oncology Drugs and Biologics Preceding Approval by the US Food and Drug Administration. JAMA network open. 2021.
MacPherson A, Hutchinson N, Schneider O, Oliviero E, Feldhake E, Ouimet C, Sheng J, Awan F, Wang C, Papenburg J, Basta NE. Probability of Success and Timelines for the Development of Vaccines for Emerging and Reemerged Viral Infectious Diseases. Annals of Internal Medicine. Nov 24, 2020.
London AJ, Kimmelman J. Against pandemic research exceptionalism. Science, 2020.
Hutchinson N, Vinarov E, Iasonos A, Kimmelman J. Ethical and Policy Issues for Seamless Phase I Oncology Trials. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2019.
London AJ, Kimmelman J. Clinical Trial Portfolios: A Critical Oversight in Human Research Ethics, Drug Regulation, and Policy. Hastings Center Report, 2019.
MacPherson A, Kimmelman J. Ethical development of stem-cell-based interventions. Nature Medicine, 2019.
Federico C, Wang T, Doussau A, Mogil J, Fergusson D, Kimmelman J. Assessment of Pregabalin Postapproval Trials and the Suggestion of Efficacy for New Indications: A Systematic Review. JAMA Internal Medicine, 2018.
Carlisle B, Federico C, Kimmelman J. Trials that say “maybe”: the disconnect between exploratory and confirmatory testing after drug approval. The BMJ, 2018.
Kimmelman J, Carlisle B, Gönen M. Drug Development at the Portfolio Level Is Important for Policy, Care Decisions and Human Protections. JAMA, 2017.
London AJ, Kimmelman J. Accelerated Drug Approval and Health Inequality. JAMA Internal Medicine, 2016.
London AJ, Kimmelman J. Point of view: Why clinical translation cannot succeed without failure. eLife, 2015.
Kimmelman J, London AJ. The Structure of Clinical Translation: Efficiency, Information, and Ethics. Hastings Center Report, 2015.
Wenner DM, Kimmelman J, London AJ. Patient-Funded Trials: Opportunity or Liability?Cell Stem Cell, 2015.